Immigration Minister Marc Miller plans to bring an end to uncapped temporary immigration to Canada.
There are also no programs in the works to give permanent residence to undocumented migrants in the country.
“The era of uncapped programs to come into this country is quickly coming to an end,” Miller reportedly said.
“This is a big shift. You can’t just slam on the brakes and expect it to stop immediately.”
In 2019, the last full year before the Covid-19 pandemic, Canada issued a little more than half a million new study permits and work visas, welcoming a total of 522,110 temporary residents.
Four years and later, the number of temporary residents with these permits was more than 1.6 million as of the end of 2023.
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During the same period, housing became increasingly unaffordable and the tide of public opinion had shifted, with 60 per cent of respondents in a Leger poll conducted in July now saying there are too many immigrants coming to Canada.
The immigration minister has responded to the shift in public opinion by putting a cap on study permit applications, limiting these to 606,250 this year, a move which is expected to reduce the number of new study permits issued this year by 40 per cent.
“The intent of these Instructions is to ensure the number of study permit applications accepted into processing by the Department of Citizenship and Immigration … within the scope of the instructions does not exceed 606,250 study permit applications for one year beginning on the date of signature,” the Canada Gazette reported on Feb. 3.
Then, on March 21, Miller also announced Ottawa will be taking further steps to limit temporary immigration with the first temporary immigration levels plan to be unveiled in September.
But some economists warn that cutting back on temporary resident immigration to Canada is going to hurt the country’s economic growth and make the impact of retiring Baby Boomers harder to handle.
“When the population rises via immigration, it essentially floats all boats,” notes RBC senior economist Nathan Janzen.
“It increases both the capacity of the economy to produce more goods and services (by increasing the supply of labour) and increases demand for those products because every added resident arriving from abroad is also a consumer.”
In Temporary Workers, Temporary Growth? How a Slowdown in the Recent Migration Surge Could Exacerbate Canada’s Downturn, Desjardins principal economist Marc Desormeaux also warns the record numbers of temporary residents in recent years could soon ease off and be a drag on economic growth.
Since temporary residents are the primary drivers of population growth in Canada, a significant drop in their numbers could lead to a stalling of the Canadian economy.
Temporary Residents Driving Population Growth And Economy In Canada
“History suggests the recent surge (in the number of temporary residents in Canada) could ease significantly, exacerbating a nascent economic slowdown,” cautions Desormeaux.
“That could have significant consequences nationwide, most notably in the largest provinces.”
Slower population growth would both reduce demand for workers and supply of workers at the same time, he points out.
“That will have an impact on total production and income earned in the economy. It will take time for the population of non-permanent residents to decline even after limits on new arrivals come into effect. But our own early assumption is that slower population growth could make the economy grow about 0.5 per cent less than previously expected by the end of 2025.”
With a federal election expected next year, the immigration minister is keeping his ear close to the ground.
“I’m not naive enough to think Canada is immune to the waves of anti-immigrant sentiment,” he reportedly said. “Canadians want a system that is not out of control.”
Immigration is expected to be a hot button issue in next year’s federal election.
Ottawa is planning to reduce the number of temporary residents to five per cent of the total population over the next three years from 6.2 per cent last year, effectively reducing temporary immigration by about 20 per cent from the 2.5 million of them in the country last year.
