The first six months of 2025 marked a turning point for Express Entry. After nearly a decade of steady expansion, Ottawa reduced the overall immigration target for 2025 to 395,000 newcomers ‒ almost 100,000 fewer than the 2024 plan. Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) responded by shrinking draw sizes, prioritising category-based selections and maintaining high Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) cut-off scores. This review analyses every draw from 1 January to 30 June 2025, compares trends with the same period in 2024, and offers practical advice for candidates preparing for the second half of the year.
Key Findings at a Glance
- Total Invitations to Apply (ITAs) issued January – June 2025: 38,845
- Percentage change from H1 2024: -11 % (43,741 → 38,845)
- Average CRS cut-off: 617 (up from 481 one year earlier)
- Lowest CRS score: 379 (French-language draw, 21 March)
- Highest CRS score: 802 (Provincial Nominee Program draw, 4 February)
- Draw frequency: 22 rounds, roughly one every 7 business days
- Largest single draw: 7,500 ITAs (French-language draw, 21 March)
- Smallest single draw: 125 ITAs (PNP draw, 10 June)
On This Page You Will Find
- Full statistical comparison of 2025 versus 2024 draw activity
- Month-by-month narrative of policy shifts and CRS fluctuations
- Breakdown of Provincial Nominee Program, Canadian Experience Class and category-based draws
- Analysis of how lower immigration levels influenced scores, timing and candidate profiles
- Step-by-step strategies to maximise your chances in the second half of 2025
1. 2025 versus 2024: The Numbers Behind the Headlines
Invitation Counts
Between January and June 2025, Express Entry issued 38,845 ITAs ‒ 4,896 fewer than the 43,741 invitations handed out in the same months of 2024. Although 11 percent may seem modest, the impact is magnified by the way invitations were distributed. All-program draws disappeared altogether, and general Canadian Experience Class (CEC) rounds were smaller than in 2024.
Draw Type Comparison (First Half)
| Draw Type | 2025 ITAs | 2024 ITAs | % Change |
| Category-based (French, health, education, etc.) | 20,500 | 13,932 | +47 % |
| Canadian Experience Class | 12,850 | 16,037 | -20 % |
| Provincial Nominee Program | 5,495 | 13,772 | -60 % |
| Total | 38,845 | 43,741 | -11 % |
Category-based selections surged, but PNP draws shrank dramatically because many provinces had already filled their smaller 2025 allocations.
CRS Score Trajectory
In 2024, the average CRS cut-off for the first six months was 481. By mid-2025 that average had climbed to 617 ‒ a 136-point hike driven by constrained quotas and a stronger emphasis on candidates who meet narrow economic targets. Only three draws featured CRS scores below 430, all reserved for French-speaking applicants.
2. A Month-by-Month Chronicle of 2025
January: A Cautious Start
- Draw 1 – 7 Jan: 471 ITAs, CRS 793, PNP only
- Draw 2 – 8 Jan: 1,350 ITAs, CRS 542, CEC
- Draw 3 – 23 Jan: 4,000 ITAs, CRS 527, CEC
Ottawa began 2025 with a modest PNP round, then pivoted to two sizable CEC draws. The goal appeared to be honouring commitments to candidates already living and working in Canada while avoiding all-program invitations that would overload 2025 admissions.
February: Provincial Emphasis and a Surprise French Draw
- Nine-day burst (4–19 Feb): four draws, including a 6,500-ITA French-language invitation round with a CRS of 428.
While the CRS for French speakers remained low, the back-to-back PNP rounds (CRS 802 and 750) signalled that provincial authorities needed to secure intake before their slimmer 2025 quotas ran out.
March: Largest Draw of the Year and Growing Selectivity
- 21 Mar: 7,500 ITAs, CRS 379, French proficiency ‒ the biggest round so far.
- 17 Mar & 6 Mar: PNP and French draws both posted CRS scores above 700 for nominees and just 410 for French candidates, highlighting the scoring gulf between categories.
March confirmed IRCC’s overarching 2025 message: speak French, work in a priority job, or secure a nomination ‒ otherwise you will face daunting CRS thresholds.
April: Category Diversity and Rising Education Demand
- 1,000 ITAs for early-childhood educators and secondary-school teachers on 1 May (CRS 479).
- 825 ITAs for PNP nominees (CRS 764) two weeks earlier.
The education round was the first of its kind under the 2025 plan, reflecting policy makers’ view that schools face acute talent shortages.
May: A Respite for Canadian Experience Class Candidates
- 13 May: 500 ITAs, CRS 547, CEC
- 12 May: 511 ITAs, CRS 706, PNP
May’s smaller rounds hinted that IRCC was conserving inventory to allow provinces and sector-specific categories to run later in the year.
June: Healthcare Dominance and More “Mini-draws”
- 4 Jun: 500 ITAs, CRS 504, healthcare and social services
- 10 Jun: 125 ITAs, CRS 784, PNP
- 23 Jun: 503 ITAs, CRS 742, PNP
The number of draws rose, but batch sizes fell drastically. IRCC fine-tuned intake to stay within the lower 2025 admissions ceiling, ensuring that visa officers would not be over-burdened by backlogs later in the year.
3. Deep Dive: Three Core Draw Categories
Provincial Nominee Program (PNP)
Eleven PNP draws generated 5,495 ITAs ‒ barely half the volume allocated to PNP nominees during the first half of 2024. Provinces such as Alberta and Ontario have already signalled that their 2025 allotments are filling faster than usual because demand remains high even as quotas decline. That means fewer certificates are available to help Express Entry candidates add 600 CRS points in the second half of the year.
- Implication: Candidates cannot rely on a nomination alone. They must still maximise language and work-experience points to remain competitive if their province pauses invitations.
Canadian Experience Class (CEC)
CEC draws awarded 12,850 ITAs over five rounds. The smallest issued just 500 invitations, compared with 7,000 invitations in a single all-program draw in February 2024. Average CRS for CEC rounds increased from 499 last year to 526 this year, reflecting stiffer competition among candidates already in Canada.
- Implication: Existing work permit holders should update Express Entry profiles immediately after each additional month of Canadian work experience and consider French lessons to stay below future CRS cut-offs.
Category-Based Selections
Ottawa leveraged category-based draws more aggressively than ever:
| Category | ITAs | Lowest CRS | % of All ITAs |
| French-language proficiency | 18,500 | 379 | 48 % |
| Healthcare & social services | 1,000 | 504 | 3 % |
| Education occupations | 1,000 | 479 | 3 % |
While healthcare received only two modest rounds, IRCC insiders have hinted at expanded health and STEM draws once provincial credential-recognition reforms gain momentum.
- Implication: Candidates should monitor IRCC notices for new or repeated categories in technology, skilled trades and STEM fields ‒ all identified as shortages in the 2025 Federal Budget.
4. Why CRS Scores Climbed So Sharply
- Lower Admissions Cap: Fewer available permanent resident spots mean IRCC can invite fewer candidates.
- No All-Program Draws: These rounds historically have the lowest CRS scores because they include Federal Skilled Worker candidates. Removing them raises the average.
- High PNP Baseline: Each nominee starts with 600 extra points. Even a small PNP draw, therefore, inflates the CRS mean.
- Targeted Skills Strategy: Category-based selections invite only those who already meet key economic criteria, leaving many general candidates to wait on the sidelines.
5. Provincial Perspective
Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario
Alberta, British Columbia and Ontario reported strong interest in their Express Entry-linked streams. However, each government confirmed in May that quota caps for 2025 were 15–20 per cent lower than their 2024 allotments. Alberta’s Accelerated Tech Pathway, for example, emptied its April pool within a week, and its June draw invited just 22 applicants.
Atlantic Provinces
New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island ran fewer Express Entry PNP draws than usual, diverting some allocations to employer-driven streams outside Express Entry. Atlantic employers continue to recruit heavily, but many now funnel newcomers through the Atlantic Immigration Program instead of the PNP.
6. Economic Context: Labour, Housing and Processing Capacity
- Labour Market: Job vacancies dropped by 18 per cent year-over-year in Q1 2025, giving Ottawa political cover to slow permanent resident admissions.
- Housing Pressure: Home prices remain elevated, and federal officials have cited supply constraints as one reason to moderate population growth.
- Visa Processing: The lower invitation volume has helped IRCC bring processing times for Express Entry back to its 6-month service standard for 85 per cent of cases, up from 76 per cent in mid-2024.
7. Candidate Roadmap for July – December 2025
- Improve Language Scores: A one-point jump in IELTS or TEF can raise CRS by up to 30 points.
- Add French: Even basic proficiency (CLB 7 or higher) can qualify you for future French-language draws with sub-400 CRS cut-offs.
- Pursue a Provincial Nomination Early: Spots are limited, and provinces are likely to exhaust their 2025 quotas by September.
- Stay Employment Ready: Keep police certificates and medical exams current. IRCC will continue to invite in quick, small batches that often require a rapid document turnaround.
8. Outlook for 2026 and Beyond
IRCC will release its 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan in November. Early consultations suggest a slight rebound in 2026 admissions to calm employer concerns about labour shortages, paired with a permanent shift toward category-based draws aligned with provincial skill needs. Candidates can therefore expect:
- More sector-specific rounds (STEM, trades, green-tech)
- Continuation of large French-language draws
- Ongoing reliance on PNP streams to manage regional labour demands
If Ottawa restores the overall target to the 450,000-range, Express Entry could see invitation totals return to nearly 100,000 per year, easing CRS pressure slightly but still rewarding candidates with French or provincial support.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why did IRCC cancel all-program draws in early 2025?
All-program draws invite the broadest pool of candidates, which would quickly exceed the reduced 2025 admissions target. By focusing on category-based and PNP selections, IRCC can control intake more precisely and address specific labour shortages.
Is French language ability really that valuable?
Yes. French-language draws accounted for almost half of all ITAs in the first six months and featured the lowest CRS cut-offs. Even intermediate proficiency can transform a borderline profile into an invited profile.
Will Express Entry scores fall later in 2025?
A moderate decline is possible if IRCC needs to meet quotas in Q4, but dramatic drops are unlikely unless Ottawa raises the overall immigration target. Candidates should prepare for CRS thresholds in the high-400s for most general categories.
How long are processing times right now?
Most recent IRCC data suggest 85 per cent of Express Entry applications are finalised within six months, a significant improvement over 2024. Lower draw volumes have allowed immigration officers to clear older files.
What happens if provinces run out of nomination certificates?
Once provincial allocations are exhausted, provinces must suspend Express Entry-linked draws until 2026 certificates are issued. Candidates without a nomination will then rely on CEC or category-based rounds to receive an invitation.
