On this page you will find:
- What Prime Minister Carney said about immigration
- Where Canada’s immigration targets stand today
- What the latest population data shows
- Why the next Immigration Levels Plan matters
- Competing advice on where targets should go
- What this means for prospective immigrants and employers
- Frequently asked questions
Prime Minister Mark Carney has signalled that Canada’s period of immigration cuts may be nearing its end, suggesting that the government is now weighing when to allow a “controlled increase” in the country’s population.
In an interview with The New York Times, reported by The Canadian Press on September 29, 2026, Carney said Canada’s immigration system is “back under control” after several years of reductions that followed the post-pandemic population surge.
The comments come roughly one month before the federal government is legally required to table its next three-year Immigration Levels Plan, which will set permanent and temporary resident targets through 2029.
What Carney Said
According to The Canadian Press, Carney told The New York Times that with the immigration system back under control, the question now is when to pursue a controlled increase in Canada’s population.
The remarks mark a notable shift in tone. Each of the government’s last three levels plans focused on reducing the number of newcomers, particularly temporary residents such as international students and foreign workers.
Carney did not announce specific numbers, and no changes to current targets have been made. Any new targets will be confirmed only when the next levels plan is tabled in Parliament.
Where Canada’s Immigration Targets Stand Today
The current 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan, released on November 5, 2025, holds permanent resident admissions flat while continuing to cut temporary arrivals.
Key targets under the current plan include:
- 380,000 permanent resident admissions in each of 2026, 2027 and 2028
- 239,800 economic class admissions in 2026
- 84,000 family class admissions in 2026
- 49,300 refugees and protected persons in 2026
- 385,000 new temporary resident arrivals in 2026, falling to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028
- A goal of reducing the temporary resident population to less than 5 per cent of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027
The plan also included one-time initiatives to transition approximately 115,000 protected persons already in Canada, and up to 33,000 temporary workers, to permanent residence.
For a full breakdown, see our guide to Canada’s 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan.
What The Latest Population Data Shows
Recent figures from Statistics Canada help explain why the government may feel the system is back under control.
Canada’s population reached an estimated 41,798,407 on July 1, 2026 – an increase of just 189,425 people, or 0.5 per cent, over the previous year. That was the smallest July-to-July increase since 1944/1945.
Other key figures include:
- 2,779,774 non-permanent residents, representing 6.7 per cent of the population
- A decline of 154,614 non-permanent residents from July 2025 – the largest July-to-July drop since 1971/1972
- 368,224 new permanent immigrants arriving in 2025/2026
- An average age of 42.1 years, with seniors now making up 20 per cent of the population
The temporary resident share has fallen from a peak of 7 per cent in October 2024, but remains above the government’s 5 per cent goal. You can read more in our coverage of how Canada’s population growth has slowed sharply as immigration levels fall.
Why The Next Levels Plan Matters
Under the Immigration and Refugee Protection Act, the Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship must table an annual report to Parliament, including the immigration levels plan, on or before November 1 each year.
The upcoming plan will set targets for 2027, 2028 and 2029. It will determine:
- How many permanent residents Canada admits each year
- How spaces are divided among economic, family and humanitarian programs
- How many Provincial Nominee Program and Express Entry admissions are available
- How many new international students and temporary foreign workers can arrive
Carney’s comments suggest the government may be preparing to stabilize or raise some targets rather than continue cutting. However, the balance between permanent and temporary immigration will be closely watched.
What Ottawa has not acknowledged is that IRCC’s inventory for applications claiming Canadian Citizenship by Descent stands at more than 136,000. It is rapidly increasing. Immigration.ca has advocated that before reopening the economic immigration taps, the government must pause new intake and redirect its resources to clear this backlog of Canadian citizens who have a constitutional entitlement to relocate to Canada.
Competing Advice On Where Targets Should Go
Not everyone agrees that an increase is the right move.
The C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council – which includes immigration academics, a former deputy minister and former Alberta premier Jason Kenney – has recommended that the government continue to reduce arrivals over the next three years.
In August 2026, the council urged Ottawa to make deeper cuts to temporary resident numbers and to improve tracking of when temporary residents leave Canada, noting a lack of reliable data on people whose study or work permits have expired.
The government will need to weigh these recommendations against labour shortages, an aging population and slowing population growth.
What This Means For Prospective Immigrants And Employers
While no targets have changed yet, Carney’s comments point to a possible opening in the years ahead.
Prospective immigrants and employers should consider:
- Monitoring the levels plan release expected by November 1, 2026
- Preparing documents, language tests and credential assessments in advance
- Reviewing eligibility for Express Entry and Provincial Nominee Programs
- Planning for temporary-to-permanent pathways, which remain a government priority
- Recognizing that temporary resident numbers are likely to stay tightly managed even if permanent targets rise
Those already in Canada on temporary status should pay particular attention, as future plans may continue to favour transitions from temporary to permanent residence over new arrivals.
A Shift In Direction
After three consecutive plans focused on reductions, Carney’s remarks are the clearest sign yet that Ottawa views the correction phase as largely complete.
The details will matter. Whether a “controlled increase” means higher permanent resident targets, a slower pace of temporary resident cuts, or both will become clear when the 2027–2029 Immigration Levels Plan is released.
Frequently Asked Questions
Did Mark Carney announce an increase in immigration?
No. Carney said Canada’s immigration system is “back under control” and that the question now is when to pursue a “controlled increase” in the population. No new targets have been announced. Any changes will be set out in the next Immigration Levels Plan.
When will Canada’s next Immigration Levels Plan be released?
The Immigration and Refugee Protection Act requires the annual report to Parliament, which includes the levels plan, to be tabled on or before November 1. The next plan will cover 2027 to 2029.
How many permanent residents will Canada admit in 2026?
The current 2026–2028 Immigration Levels Plan targets 380,000 permanent resident admissions in 2026, with a range of 350,000 to 420,000.
What share of Canada’s population are temporary residents?
According to Statistics Canada, there were 2,779,774 non-permanent residents on July 1, 2026, representing 6.7 per cent of the population. The government’s goal is to reduce this to less than 5 per cent by the end of 2027.
Will temporary resident targets increase?
It is not yet known. The current plan reduces new temporary arrivals to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028. The C.D. Howe Institute’s immigration targets council has recommended further cuts to temporary resident numbers.