Immigration Refusal Rates Climb Across Most Categories in Canada

On this page you will find:

• Latest refusal rate data for permanent and temporary residents
• Recent policy changes affecting immigration applications
• The impact of intake caps and staffing cuts on backlogs
• Why Canada remains attractive to students despite new rules
• Ottawa’s response to transparency and fairness concerns

Canada is experiencing a sharp increase in immigration refusal rates across almost all permanent and temporary resident categories since 2023, according to newly released federal data published by the Toronto Star.

The trend is most pronounced in temporary resident programs, where changing eligibility rules, stricter policy measures, and pressure on officers to process cases quickly have contributed to higher rejection levels. Critics say these pressures risk leading to hasty decision-making as Ottawa seeks to reduce backlogs.

Policy Shifts Driving Change

The higher refusal rates are unfolding against a backdrop of significant reforms to Canada’s temporary immigration programs over the past year. The federal government has introduced a series of measures aimed at aligning immigration with economic priorities and reducing the overall number of temporary residents in the country.

In September 2024, the government announced a 10 per cent reduction in study permit approvals for 2025, lowering the cap from 485,000 in 2024 to 437,000. New language requirements for Post-Graduation Work Permit (PGWP) applicants also came into force on 1 November 2024 – Canadian Language Benchmark (CLB) Level 7 for university graduates and CLB Level 5 for college graduates.

On 21 January 2025, changes to family Open Work Permits further tightened eligibility for spouses and children of foreign workers and international students. Spouses of students are now only eligible if the principal applicant is in a master’s program of at least 16 months, a doctoral program, or specific professional programs. Spouses of foreign workers must meet occupational and duration criteria, while dependent children of foreign workers no longer qualify for these permits.

Rising Refusal Rates Across the Board

The Toronto Star reports that refusal rates have increased across all four permanent resident categories in the first five months of 2025:

• Economic class – 6.7 per cent, up from 5 per cent in 2023 and 5.6 per cent in 2024.
• Family class – 12.6 per cent, up from 7.2 per cent in 2023 and 8.4 per cent in 2024.
• Humanitarian and compassionate – 40.4 per cent, up from 29.5 per cent in 2023 and 23.6 per cent in 2024.
• Refugees with protected status – 16.5 per cent, up from 12.9 per cent in 2023 and 11.8 per cent in 2024.

The most dramatic increases, however, have been in temporary resident programs over the last two years:

• Study permits – up to 65.4 per cent from 40.5 per cent.
• Visitor visas – up to 50 per cent from 39 per cent.
• Postgraduation work permits – up to 24.6 per cent from 12.8 per cent.
• Work permits for spouses of study/work permit holders – up to 52.3 per cent from 25.2 per cent.
• Work permit extensions – up to 10.8 per cent from 6.5 per cent.

Backlogs Remain High Despite Intake Cuts

While Ottawa has reduced immigration intake targets for 2025 through 2027 and cut 3,300 positions in the Immigration Department, the number of applications continues to climb.

As of 30 June 2025, there were 2,189,500 applications in the system — up from 1,976,700 in March. Of these, 842,800 had been waiting longer than the department’s own service standards.

Experts note that economic class applications have the lowest refusal rates because the government can manage numbers by adjusting qualifying scores under systems like Express Entry, preventing large backlogs. By contrast, the higher family class refusals may reflect cases where applicants, running out of other options, marry a Canadian citizen or permanent resident in an attempt to secure immigration status.

Canada Still Draws International Student Interest

Despite the policy tightening and higher refusal rates, Canada remains the world’s most popular destination for international students.

According to the ApplyBoard Spring 2025 Student Pulse Survey, 94 per cent of nearly 850 respondents expressed some level of interest in studying in Canada. Students cited high-quality education, cultural diversity, and favourable post-study work and immigration options as key attractions.

However, affordability is a growing concern, with 77 per cent naming tuition costs as the most important factor in choosing a study destination. Many students are considering shorter or more affordable programs, which could influence the types of applications Canada receives in the coming years.

Department Defends Decision-Making Process

The Immigration Department says no final decisions are made by artificial intelligence, and that its tools do not refuse or recommend refusal of applications. Each case, it says, is assessed individually based on the applicant’s circumstances.

“While returning our overall immigration rates to sustainable levels is a priority, the department does not refuse applications solely to meet those targets,” the department said in a statement.

Following calls for greater transparency, Ottawa has begun including officers’ notes in refusal letters, giving applicants a clearer explanation for the decisions made on their files.

Balancing Economic Needs with Immigration Goals

Canada’s evolving immigration policy reflects the government’s stated objective of balancing economic growth with sustainable population targets. The temporary resident population is set to be reduced from 6.5 per cent to 5 per cent of the national total by 2027, under the 2025–2027 Immigration Levels Plan.

Labour market needs will continue to drive priority sectors under programs such as the Temporary Foreign Worker Program and the International Mobility Program. Roles in healthcare, construction, education, and certain trades are likely to remain in focus.

For prospective applicants, the rising refusal rates underline the importance of preparing strong, well-documented applications that meet the most current eligibility criteria.

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