Canada Immigration Minister Marc Miller’s plan to cut the number of temporary residents in the country has hit a snag.
Miller announced on March 21 a move to reduce the share of the population taken up by temporary residents from 6.2 per cent to 5 per cent by 2027.
But the Bank of Canada says the federal government could fall short of this goal.
“Non permanent residents (NPRs) represented 6.8 per cent of the population at the beginning of April – much higher than at the time of the March announcement – and the share is expected to continue rising over the near term,” a report by the central bank said.
This reality suggests that planned policies will take over three years to reduce NPR inflows and achieve the targets.
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The bank said in the July 2024 report that there is “considerable uncertainty” around the future path of net NPR flows which affects all the moving parts of the process.
According to the report, details on how most temporary resident permit programs will be adjusted are expected later this year.
“The bank’s scenario will be revised as further measures are announced and more details on program changes become available,” the report said.
Miller said in March: “Our labour market needs are tightening, so should our policies. As we gradually reduce our reliance on temporary foreign workers, we will continue to help employers fill job vacancies while supporting Canadian workers.”
Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) said in a statement that the new reality will impact the measures to address the influx of temporary residents in the upcoming immigration levels plan.
According to a March news release, “The Canadian government will continue to monitor labour market conditions to ensure that the Temporary Foreign Workers Program (TFWP) reflects current economic needs, that Canadians are considered first for job opportunities, and that the rights of temporary foreign workers in Canada are protected.”
Migrant Workers Alliance for Change is Canada’s (MWAC) largest migrant-led organization, uniting migrant farmworkers, care workers, fishery workers, current and former international students, and undocumented individuals to advocate for employment and immigration justice.
The organization’s executive director, Syed Hussan, said: “The issue is not how many migrants there are; it is that they are exploited at work, mistreated by landlords and shut out of essential services like healthcare and education because they are denied permanent resident status.”
In its 2024–25 Departmental plan, IRCC says it will continue prioritizing applications in essential sectors such as agriculture, food processing, and health care. It will also work to keep the economy competitive by facilitating top talent, as announced in its Tech Talent Strategy.
However, IRCC sees key risks if the number of temporary residents’ applications continues to grow and impacts processing management. It has mitigations to reduce the potential impact of delayed processing times, as it prioritizes shorter wait times to improve service standards while maintaining program integrity.
Economic impact
According to IRCC, the number of temporary residents surged in 2023, a marked increase from previous years. The Bank of Canada report noted temporary workers’ contribution to the economy in various sectors, including agriculture and construction, which were not touched when the minister announced in March.
However, the bank warned of the impact of the influx of immigrants on housing, healthcare, and education systems. The most pressure will be on the housing sector, as an increase in demand will lead to affordability issues. A population surge will also result in inflation and upend plans to stabilize the economy.
The Canadian government has implemented policies to manage the number of temporary residents, including visa regulations and work permit restrictions. Many temporary residents aspire to be permanent, but the transition process must be streamlined as demand grows. Issues arising include application backlog and long processing times.
Social and Cultural Impact
Besides economic considerations, the surge in temporary residents also has a social and cultural impact. Temporary residents add diversity and enrich the multicultural fabric of Canadian society. They contribute their cultures, languages, and perspectives to communities and foster greater understanding.
However, barriers still need to be addressed, including language proficiency, recognition of foreign credentials, and social isolation. Ensuring that temporary residents can fully participate in Canadian society is crucial for maximizing immigration benefits. Community organizations need funding to create resources that temporary residents can access to understand the Canadian system better and settle in their new country.
Long-Term Sustainability
The Bank of Canada’s projections highlight the need for long-term sustainability in managing temporary residents, including planning for future growth. The bank considers investments in infrastructure, such as affordable housing, public transportation, and healthcare facilities, essential to supporting an increasing population.
Education and training programs for temporary residents and Canadians can help bridge skills gaps and improve the labour market.
Canada is known for welcoming and accepting temporary residents. Still, the Bank of Canada’s projections show that managing a surge in temporary residents will involve stakeholders such as policymakers, businesses, and communities working together to ensure that Canada can continue to benefit from immigration while addressing the challenges posed by an increasing population.
A balanced immigration strategy will ensure success in maintaining economic stability, social cohesion, and cultural richness. The experiences and contributions of temporary residents and their eventual transition to permanent status will encourage long-term contributions to the economy and society.
