Canada is facing a demographic turning point. New data from Statistics Canada, released on September 24, 2025, reveals a sharp slowdown in population growth and a renewed acceleration in population aging. After several years of record-breaking immigration levels, federal policy shifts are now reversing those trends. The second quarter of 2025 saw Canada’s population grow by just 0.1%, one of the slowest rates in postwar history, excluding the pandemic period. At the same time, the median and average ages of Canadians are rising again, signalling mounting pressure on the country’s workforce and economy.
On This Page You Will Find
- Canada’s Q2 2025 population growth numbers
- Impacts of reduced immigration on overall growth
- The shrinking working-age population and rising median age
- Provincial and interprovincial migration trends
- Long-term risks for the labour force and economy
Immigration Cuts Behind Population Slowdown
As of July 1, 2025, Canada’s estimated population stood at 41,651,653, an increase of only 47,098 people over the previous quarter. This marks the lowest second-quarter growth since 2020, when COVID-19 border restrictions nearly halted population inflows. To put this in perspective, Canada grew by over 272,000 people in Q2 2024 and 321,000 people in Q2 2023. The dramatic drop in 2025 reflects a deliberate federal effort to reduce the number of non-permanent residents (NPRs), including international students and temporary foreign workers.
International migration still accounts for most of Canada’s growth, but that proportion is shrinking. In the second quarter of 2025, international migration contributed 33,694 people – or 71.5% of the growth – down from 95.3% in the same quarter last year. The rest of the increase came from natural growth (births minus deaths), which added just 13,404 people. Over the 12-month period ending July 1, 2025, Canada’s population grew by 0.9% (389,324 people), a sharp drop from the 3.0% growth seen between July 2023 and July 2024.
Dramatic Reductions in Temporary Immigration
The slowdown is largely driven by a sharp decline in the number of non-permanent residents. Between April and July 2025, Canada experienced a net loss of 58,719 NPRs – the second-largest quarterly decline on record. The overall number of NPRs peaked at 3.15 million in October 2024, but has since fallen to 3.02 million, now accounting for 7.3% of the population.
Most of this decline was due to reductions in study and work permit holders. In the second quarter alone, the number of study permit holders dropped by 32,025, while work permit holders declined by 19,637. Another 19,072 people holding both study and work permits left the country. Although the number of asylum claimants and protected persons rose by nearly 18,000, it was not enough to offset the broader decline.
This trend follows federal announcements in 2024 to reduce the intake of temporary residents, particularly targeting international students. With fewer young, working-age newcomers arriving in Canada, the effects on the labour force are already visible.
Population Aging Accelerates Once Again
The median age in Canada increased from 40.3 to 40.6 years between July 2024 and July 2025, while the average age rose from 41.6 to 41.8 years. This marks a clear return to the long-term trend of population aging that had been temporarily slowed by younger immigrant inflows in previous years.
Seniors aged 65 and older now make up 19.5% of Canada’s population, increasing by 3.4% over the past year to reach 8.1 million people. In contrast, the population of children aged 0 to 14 remained flat at 6.26 million. More concerning is the weakening growth of the working-age population (15 to 64 years), which increased by only 0.4% – down from 3.2% in the previous year. This slowdown is directly tied to the drop in young non-permanent residents – especially international students – who often enter the workforce after graduation.
The labour force consequences are significant. With baby boomers continuing to retire, a shrinking pipeline of younger workers could mean persistent labour shortages, slower economic growth, and increased pressure on pensions and public services.
Regional Differences: Alberta Leads, B.C. Falls Behind
Population growth in 2025 varied significantly by province. Alberta and Prince Edward Island posted the fastest growth in Q2, at +0.4% and +0.8% respectively. Alberta’s gains were also supported by strong interprovincial migration, as it attracted more people from other provinces for the 12th consecutive quarter.
British Columbia, by contrast, recorded a rare population decline of 2,154 people in the second quarter. Despite gaining more than 12,000 permanent immigrants, the province lost nearly 14,700 non-permanent residents and saw net emigration of over 2,600 people. These losses outweighed natural population growth and arrivals from other provinces.
Interprovincial migration patterns also tell a familiar story. Ontario continued to see net losses, shedding 6,154 residents in Q2 – the 15th consecutive quarter of outflows. Most of those leaving Ontario moved to Alberta, British Columbia or Quebec.
Newfoundland and Labrador: Canada’s Oldest Province
Newfoundland and Labrador became the first province in Canada where more than one in four people (25.2%) is aged 65 or older. This milestone highlights the regional disparities in aging and population trends across the country. At the other end of the spectrum, Nunavut remains Canada’s youngest region, with a median age of 27.1 years and only 5.2% of residents aged 65 or older.
Across the country, the combination of low fertility, longer life expectancy, and a shrinking share of young newcomers means the aging trend is expected to continue. Even high immigration levels have only modest effects on age structure unless the inflows are extremely large and skewed toward young adults.
The Outlook: A Shrinking Labour Force Without Immigration
Canada’s population outlook now depends heavily on immigration policy. The current drop in temporary migration has demonstrated how quickly the demographic balance can shift. With natural increase (births minus deaths) barely contributing to growth, immigration – both permanent and temporary – remains the most powerful tool available to support labour supply, population growth, and economic sustainability.
While Canada remains committed to welcoming over 100,000 permanent residents each quarter, this may not be enough to offset the combined effects of a shrinking younger population and rising retirements. Rebuilding temporary immigration streams or shifting focus to younger permanent residents could be critical in reversing the current labour force contraction.
FAQ
Why is Canada’s population growth slowing in 2025?
The federal government reduced the number of non-permanent residents – particularly international students and work permit holders – leading to a sharp decline in growth.
What impact does this have on the labour force?
The working-age population is growing more slowly, increasing the pressure on Canada’s workforce and creating risks for economic and public service sustainability.
Is immigration still a major factor in growth?
Yes. Although permanent immigration continues, the sharp decline in temporary residents has lowered overall population growth and reduced the number of young newcomers.
Which provinces are most affected?
British Columbia saw a rare population decline in Q2 2025, while Alberta and PEI recorded the fastest growth. Newfoundland and Labrador is now the oldest province.
Can immigration solve Canada’s aging population problem?
Immigration helps – especially when newcomers are younger. However, only very large and sustained immigration waves can meaningfully slow the aging trend over the long term.
