On this page, you will find:
- What Bill C-3 Changed
- Canadian Roots Across Generations
- Methodology: How the 280,000 Estimate Was Calculated
- How This Compares With Official Estimates
- About the Survey
- Historical Context: US Permanent Resident Admissions
- Citizenship and a Family Move
- Frequently asked questions
About 280,000 Lost Canadians and their spouses living in the United States could move to Canada following changes to Canada’s citizenship-by-descent law. That figure comes from a preliminary projection that combines citizenship research with immigration.ca survey findings.
In a survey of 409 immigration.ca applicants, conducted between September and October 2026, nearly 15 per cent said they are very likely to move to Canada within five years of approval. Almost 6 per cent said they are very likely to move within 12 months.
The estimate is preliminary. Its assumptions about the descendant population and family make-up have not been verified, and the survey reflects the intentions of immigration.ca applicants, not every eligible descendant.
What Bill C-3 Changed
In December 2023, the Ontario Superior Court of Justice ruled in Bjorkquist v. Attorney General of Canada that the first-generation limit on citizenship by descent was unconstitutional. The limit stopped Canadians born abroad from passing citizenship to children also born abroad, and it was built on restrictions dating back to the 1947 Citizenship Act.
Bill C-3 responded to that ruling. It received Royal Assent on November 20, 2025, and came into force on December 15, 2025. People born abroad before that date to a Canadian parent are citizens with no generational limit, as are remaining Lost Canadians. Lost Canadians are people who lost or never acquired citizenship because of outdated provisions in earlier laws. For children born abroad on or after December 15, 2025, the Canadian parent, if also born abroad, must have spent at least 1,095 days in Canada before the child’s birth.
People who became citizens automatically under the changes can apply for a citizenship certificate to confirm their status. As citizens, they can live in Canada without applying for permanent residence.
Canadian Roots Across Generations
Up to 5 million Americans of all ages may qualify for Canadian citizenship under Bill C-3, according to peer-reviewed historical emigration data. Many have Canadian family histories reaching back generations to pre-Confederation.
The Acadian expulsions beginning in 1755 scattered families across the American colonies, England and France. Between 1840 and 1900, French Canadians left Quebec for New England’s mill towns, and emigration to the United States continued between 1906 and 1930.
These movements explain why many Americans have Canadian ancestry. Ancestry alone is not enough, though. A claim requires documents showing an unbroken line to a Canadian citizen and an assessment under the citizenship rules that apply to each generation.
Methodology: How the 280,000 Estimate Was Calculated
The projection uses three steps.
1. Applicants. Starting from a provisional pool of about 5 million US descendants of all ages, the model assumes 30 per cent apply within the first three years of the revised Citizenship Act. That gives about 1.5 million applicants, children included.
2. Relocation rate. Nearly 15 per cent of survey respondents said they are very likely to move to Canada within five years of approval. Applied to 1.5 million applicants, that projects up to 225,000 descendants relocating. Based on the 6 per cent who said they would move within a year, about 90,000 would arrive in the first year.
3. Spouses. Because the 225,000 already includes children, the model adds only spouses who are not themselves descendants. The ratio comes from 2024 admissions data in IRCC’s 2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration. In 2024, Canada admitted 146,450 economic-class principal applicants and 135,165 accompanying partners and dependents. IRCC does not report spouses and children separately within that group. This model assumes spouses make up 40 to 45 per cent of it, which is an estimate rather than a published IRCC figure.
On that basis, a typical family is one principal applicant, 0.53 dependent children and 0.39 spouses. Under that pattern, the 225,000 relocating descendants represent about 147,000 families, which would bring about 57,600 spouses. The total is about 283,000 people, rounded to 280,000, with a range of about 278,000 to 287,000. In the first year, about 90,000 descendants would arrive with about 23,000 spouses.
Some spouses are likely descendants themselves and are already counted, so the estimate may lean slightly high.
How This Compares With Official Estimates
The 280,000 projection is well above official figures. In December 2024, the Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated that about 115,000 people would be affected by the earlier version of the legislation (Bill C-71) over five years. In an October 2025 briefing for the House immigration committee, IRCC said it expected “tens of thousands (and not hundreds of thousands)” to be affected by Bill C-3. Neither estimate draws on survey data from applicants.
About the Survey
Immigration.ca surveyed 409 citizenship-by-descent applicants between September 25 and October 19, 2026. Of those, 393 (96 per cent) were US citizens. If this were a random sample, the 15 per cent figure would carry a margin of error of about ±3.5 percentage points and the 6 per cent figure about ±2.3 points, 19 times out of 20.
It is not a random sample of everyone eligible under Bill C-3. Respondents chose to take part and have already started the citizenship process, so they are likely more motivated than eligible descendants in general. The survey also measures stated intentions, which tend to overstate what people actually do. The results are best read as a snapshot of committed applicants, and the relocation estimate as an informed projection rather than a statistical finding.
Historical Context: US Permanent Resident Admissions
Americans make up a small share of Canada’s permanent resident admissions. According to IRCC data, Canada admitted 10,415 US citizens as permanent residents in 2022, 10,640 in 2023 and about 9,330 in 2024. That is roughly 2 per cent of all admissions each year.
US citizens receive no preference for permanent residence. They compete in the same economic streams as other applicants, where Express Entry and provincial nominee programs score candidates on age, education, language ability, Canadian work experience and in-demand occupations. Citizenship by descent bypasses that process entirely. Even a fraction of the projected 225,000 descendants would far exceed recent annual admissions from the US.
Citizenship and a Family Move
About 57,600 of the projected 280,000 are spouses, and they would not move as citizens. A spouse does not become Canadian by marrying a citizen. A foreign-national spouse needs a separate immigration route to permanent residence, such as spousal sponsorship. Canadian citizens who sponsor from abroad must show they plan to live in Canada once their spouse becomes a permanent resident.
For help assessing your family’s claim and the documents needed to establish it, book a private confidential consultation.
Sources
- IRCC: Bill C-3 comes into effect
- 2025 Annual Report to Parliament on Immigration
- PBO Legislative Costing Note, Bill C-71
- CIMM briefing – Bill C-3, October 2, 2025
- Annual immigration statistics of Canada (Wikipedia)
Frequently Asked Questions
Does a Canadian grandparent automatically make me eligible?
A Canadian grandparent or more distant ancestor may support a claim, but ancestry alone does not establish eligibility. Eligibility depends on how the law applies to each generation and on documents proving the family relationship.
Is a citizenship certificate application the same as applying to become Canadian?
No. For someone who became a citizen automatically under Bill C-3, the application seeks proof of existing citizenship. IRCC checks the claim and, if it is confirmed, issues a citizenship certificate.
Do the same rules apply to children born abroad on or after December 15, 2025?
No. For second- or later-generation children born abroad on or after that date, a Canadian parent who was also born or adopted abroad generally must have spent at least 1,095 days physically in Canada before the child’s birth or adoption to pass on citizenship.
Must I move to Canada to confirm citizenship under these changes?
No. People born before December 15, 2025, who became citizens automatically do not have to move to Canada to obtain proof of citizenship. They can apply for a certificate while living abroad. Whether to relocate is a separate decision.
How are the 1,095 days of physical presence calculated for children born on or after December 15, 2025?
The 1,095 days of physical presence must be accumulated by the Canadian parent over their lifetime prior to the child’s birth or adoption. These days are strictly cumulative, meaning they do not need to be consecutive. Additionally, your immigration status during that time does not matter—days spent in Canada as a visitor, international student, temporary worker, or permanent resident all count equally toward the requirement.
What happens if I don’t meet the 1,095-day requirement for my future children?
If a Canadian citizen born abroad cannot demonstrate 1,095 days of physical presence in Canada, they cannot automatically pass citizenship to a child born outside of Canada on or after December 15, 2025. However, the parent can still sponsor the child for Canadian permanent residence through the family class, and subsequently apply for a grant of citizenship for the child once they arrive. Exceptions also apply if the parent was working abroad as a Canadian Crown servant at the time of the birth.
Will claiming my Canadian citizenship affect my US citizenship?
No. Both Canada and the United States fully recognize dual citizenship. Because applying for a Canadian citizenship certificate simply confirms a status you already legally hold, it does not require you to renounce your US citizenship, nor does it jeopardize your US passport.
Does my non-Canadian spouse automatically get citizenship if my claim is approved?
No. Canadian citizenship is not automatically granted through marriage. If you plan to relocate to Canada, your foreign-national spouse will need to obtain permanent residency, typically by having you sponsor them under the spousal sponsorship program. Once they have lived in Canada as a permanent resident for at least three out of five years (1,095 days), they can apply for Canadian citizenship on their own.
Are adopted children eligible under the new Bill C-3 rules?
Yes. Bill C-3 extends the same citizenship rights to individuals adopted internationally by a Canadian citizen. For adoptions finalized on or after December 15, 2025, the Canadian parent who was themselves born or adopted abroad must demonstrate the same “substantial connection” of 1,095 days of physical presence in Canada prior to the adoption to pass on citizenship.