“Sustaining the Canada–US economic relationship ranks as one of Canada’s most important foreign policy objectives since Canadian prosperity is closely linked to the health of the relationship and the growth of the United States economy,” according to The Canadian Encyclopedia. Nearly 80 percent of all exports from Canada go to the US.
Sustaining this vital relationship is a critical foreign policy goal for Canada and shifts in US leadership—whether from a Kamala Harris presidency or a second Donald Trump term—could significantly impact the flow of goods, services, and even people between the two nations.
In this election year, movement is in one direction—from south to north—as Americans look to escape a Trump presidency to Canada, a more attractive and stable destination with none of the political turbulence.
On November 10, 2016, CBC reported that 200,000 users were on the Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) website when it crashed. According to the national broadcaster, there were 17,000 users during the same time the previous week. IRCC confirmed that visitors from the US made up half of the website traffic (100,000 users) when it “started to experience difficulties” at about 11 p.m. on November 8, 2016.
There was a move-to-Canada frenzy leading up to the 2016 elections, with celebrities declaring they would move to Canada if Trump won, “Girls” actress Lena Dunham, “Breaking Bad’s” Bryan Cranston and singer Miley Cyrus among them.
In 2020, when Trump ran against Joe Biden, 70 percent of respondents to a poll polled said a Biden presidency would suit Canada, while 22 percent said a second term for Trump would be better for Canadian interests.
With Trump back in the presidential race, the same sentiment has returned, and the number of Americans applying for Permanent Resident status continues to rise. It started in 2015 at 7,655 and has increased steadily, only dipping to 6,380 in 2020 because of COVID-19. It was 10,640 in 2023.
Express Entry and Start-Up Visa
Economic immigration through Express Entry and entrepreneur immigration through Canada’s Start-Up Visa are two important ways in which Americans can move to Canada.
Well-educated American citizens or residents with US work experience are good candidates for Express Entry, including through the Federal Skilled Worker Program or the Provincial Nominee Program.
The Start-Up Visa, meanwhile, offers a viable route for business-minded individuals who can secure the support of a designated entity in Canada for their business idea.
Both routes are expected to be significant streams of newcomers to Canada in the coming years, despite the potential for the Canadian federal government to reduce immigration targets due to political pressures.
US Election: Impact On Canadian Economy
A paper in Canadian Politics and Public Policy by Michael Davenport and Tony Stillo highlights how a Harris presidency would have little effect on Canada’s economy, while a Trump presidency could lead to higher tariffs, inflation, and slower economic growth. These could push US residents to consider moving to Canada for better opportunities and a more stable economic environment.
Americans seeking to migrate to Canada can do so through immigration programs, including:
- Federal Economic Class: Through the Express Entry Program, candidates are selected based on skills, work experience, education, and language proficiency. It fast-tracks applications in as little as six months, making it a popular route for skilled workers.
- Provincial Nominee Program (PNP): Provinces and territories in Canada can nominate individuals for permanent residence based on their specific labour market needs.
- Start-Up Visa Program: This program is aimed at entrepreneurs with innovative business ideas who can secure the support of designated Canadian investors or organizations.
- Temporary to Permanent Residency: Americans living temporarily in Canada for work or study can transition to permanent residency.
- Family Class Sponsorship: Under this program, family members of Canadian citizens or permanent residents may be sponsored for immigration.
If Trump’s proposed 10 percent tariffs on Canadian goods pass, sectors reliant on US trade—such as motor vehicle manufacturing, transportation equipment, chemicals, and machinery—could suffer. American professionals in these fields might look to Canada for employment, where industries could seek to fill skilled positions to offset domestic labour shortages. Notably, transportation, construction, or manufacturing could benefit from skilled trade opportunities in Canada, which is already experiencing a labour shortage in these fields.
A Harris presidency, focused on progressive social policies and an “Agenda to Lower Costs for American Families” (covering childcare, healthcare, housing, and education), may also push certain groups of Americans, like skilled professionals or those disillusioned by policy shifts, to explore immigration to Canada. They may find alignment with Canada’s more robust social safety net and healthcare system.
“No matter who the US president is in 2025, Canada’s economy would be affected by trade protectionism, just to different degrees,” Carleton University political scientist Aaron Ettinger told CTV. “Either way, Canadians will need to be alert.”
The United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) review in 2026 could pressure Canada to grant more access to US exporters. Additionally, a Canadian federal election in 2025 could complicate relations, especially under a Conservative government, particularly in a President Kamala Harris administration scenario. The Canadian Conservative government might disagree on specific policies, such as policies on climate change, immigration, and social issues.
However, as Ettinger said, some level of trade protectionism is likely regardless of who wins the US presidency. This could result in tighter US border controls and greater demand for Canadian exports, making Canada’s economy more appealing to American workers and investors. As industries in Canada adjust to changes in US trade policy, professionals with expertise in sectors like manufacturing, technology, and finance may find new opportunities in a country that makes economic growth and trade partnerships priorities.
Trump’s proposed tariffs would heavily impact Canada’s construction, extraction, and manufacturing sectors. Reduced demand from higher inflation, tighter monetary policy, and decreased consumer confidence may threaten manufacturing. Because of falling business investments, the construction sector could drop 2.9 percent drop in output by 2029. In services, the accommodation, food, and arts sectors would be hit hardest as higher costs squeeze household budgets, the authors of the paper said.
Political changes in the US and the resulting economic pressures—especially under a potential Trump presidency—could drive more Americans to seek stability and new opportunities in Canada. Whether to escape rising inflation, high tariffs, or policy uncertainty, migration to Canada may become attractive for skilled workers and professionals looking to benefit from Canada’s continued economic growth and trade ties with the US.
