Employment in Canada was virtually unchanged in June, with a minor decrease of 1,400 jobs. Meanwhile, the employment rate fell slightly by 0.2 percentage points to 61.1 per cent.
This, as per the latest Labour Force Survey, marks the eighth decline in the employment rate over the past nine months, reflecting a 1.3 percentage point drop since the high observed in early 2023.
The unemployment rate rose to 6.4 per cent in June, a 0.2 percentage point increase from the previous month and a 1.3 percentage point rise since April 2023. This is indicative of difficult growth for individuals in securing employment.
According to TD Managing Director and Senior Economist, Leslie Preston, the softening labour market is a likely contributor to the Bank of Canada’s resolve that it was time to start lowering interest rates last month.
“Financial markets have increased their odds to greater than 50% that the next cut is coming at their July 24th decision,” she wrote.
“We still have a couple of very key indicators to go before we reach that point, including inflation and the BoC’s Business Outlook Survey, which will help determine whether the next cut is July or September. In either case, Canada’s economy is not falling off a cliff and we expect rate cuts will be gradual over the remainder of the year.”
Employment decreased by 13,000 (-0.9 per cent) for young men aged 15-24, while it held steady for young women. The youth employment rate in general has been trending downward since April 2023, going down by 4.4 percentage points to 54.8 per cent in June 2024.
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For core aged men, employment numbers underwent little change (-14,000; -0.2 per cent) in June, and the employment rate fell 0.5 percentage points to reach 86.6 per cent.
For core-aged women, on the other hand, employment increased by 19,000 (+0.3 per cent), and the employment rate held steady at 80.6 per cent.
In sectoral terms, transportation and warehousing decreased by 12,000 jobs (-1.1%), after a 1.9 per cent decline in May (-21,000). On a year-over-year basis, however, there was little change.
In public administration, employment fell by 8,800 (-0.7 per cent) in June, which was the first decline since August 2023.
Year-on-year, public administration employment rose by 24,000 (2.0 per cent).
Other sectors that underwent changes were:
- Accommodation and Food Services: Increased by 17,000 jobs (+1.5%).
- Agriculture: Increased by 12,000 jobs (+5.5%).
The provincial employment trend caused declines in Quebec, while New Brunswick (+3,000; +0.8%) and Newfoundland and Labrador (+2,600; +1.1%) showed increases.
Total hours worked decreased by 0.4% in June but were up 1.1% year-over-year. Average hourly wages saw a significant increase of 5.4% year-over-year, continuing the growth trend from May.
The employment rate for returning students aged 15 to 24 was at a low of 46.8% in June, down from 51.7% the previous year, indicating a challenging job market for young individuals seeking summer employment.
The labour market in June 2024 showed mixed signals with minimal overall employment change, rising unemployment, and significant demographic and sectoral shifts. Wage growth remains a positive highlight, though challenges persist, particularly for younger workers and specific sectors.
The report for the month of June found that teleworkers with a remote work location are making up a growing share of employees working from home.
While more Canadians are choosing to work in person since the lifting of pandemic restrictions in 2022, some of the labor market trends related to telework are still in place.
Of the employees who usually work most of their hours from home, some work in the same city or nearby, while others choose to work from a more remote work location, which may even be located outside a commutable distance.
Just under one quarter (24.2 per cent) of work-from-home employees are teleworkers in June, which is an increase from June 2022 (17.2 per cent).
