April 11, 2017 – Lower scores and higher numbers of Canada immigration invitations (ITA’s) have become a feature of the Canada Express Entry System during the first three months of 2017.
Just one draw in the first quarter saw fewer than 3,000 Invitations to Apply issued, with five out of seven featuring more than 3,500 ITAs.
The 2017 Comprehensive Ranking System scores have consistently dropped below those for the same period of 2016, and are far below 2015.
The figures point to the federal government getting fully into its stride under Canada Express Entry, with an upper target of more than 77,000 new economic class immigrants to be admitted in 2017 as outlined in its 2016 annual immigration plan.
Invitations to Apply (ITAs)
The total number of ITAs issued so far in 2017 surpasses the figures for each of the entire previous two years.
Some 24,652 ITAs have been issued in 2017, compared with 9,465 during the first quarter in 2016 and 6,851 in 2015, the year Canada’s Express Entry System began.
Extrapolated over the whole year, this suggests that well more than 100,000 ITAs will likely be issued in 2017.
Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
The reasons for such a dramatic increase are four-fold.
- Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada aims to receive near the upper target of its annual immigration levels for economic class immigrants.
- The government now has a much clearer picture of how ITAs relate to submitted applications. It has two years of data showing how many candidates received ITAs but failed to submit their applications. The relationship between ITAs, completed applications and immigrants arriving in Canada is a key driver when setting ITA numbers.
- The time it takes to complete an application from the date of an ITA, with the target being six months. As such, IRCC is aware it must issue a certain number of ITAs during specified quarters so that those invited arrive in the calendar year. This was also part of the reason behind the increase in ITAs at the end of 2016. These candidates would be counted against the 2017 immigration target.
- The backlog of applications that formed under the previous system before Express Entry began are now almost all cleared. This means that sometime soon every new federal economic class permanent resident must all come through Express Entry.
Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
As the draw-by-draw chart above shows, at the onset of Express Entry, the federal government preferred to ease its way forward with limited numbers of ITAs being issued. This allowed for a better analysis of data.
Of 13 draws made in the first quarters of 2015 and 2016, just four saw more then 1,500 ITAs issued.
Meanwhile, in 2017, the average number of ITAs issued has been more than 3,500.
Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) Scores
As the number of ITAs has increased, the lowest CRS score has decreased, dropping to 434 in the sixth draw of 2017, which was the lowest ever at the time.
It has since been lowered, with a score of 431 recorded in the first draw of the second quarter at the start of April.
But while the number of ITAs has shown a dramatic increase, the CRS score drop is less pronounced.
This is in part down to a change in how points are awarded, introduced in November 2016.
Under the changes, a qualified job offer became worth 200 or 50 points, depending on the position. Previously, any job offer backed by a Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) was worth 600 points.
The changes also saw new points for candidates educated in Canada, 15 for a two-year course and 30 for three years and more, including Masters and PhD.
The would have had the effect of compressing the range of points scored by candidates in the Express Entry pool.
Source: Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada
This suggests the calibre of Canada immigration candidates in the Express Entry Pool is improving, and that candidates are becoming more aware of how to boost their CRS scores.
Far more significantly, it indicates there are a large number of candidates in the Express Entry Pool with scores in the mid-400s.
This infers that a drop of just a few CRS points can mean several hundred more candidates make it above the threshold in a draw.
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Importantly, this also shows how a candidate increasing their CRS score by just a few points can be the difference between receiving an ITA or remaining in the pool.
Read our comprehensive guide on how to boost your CRS score here, and consult our Express Entry score matrix here.
Canada Express Entry Changes
Changes to the Express Entry System mean a straight comparison between the three years is of limited value.
The move to reduce the number of points available for a qualified job offer will lower the scores of candidates in the Express Entry Pool.
With more emphasis placed on credentials – including new points for a Canadian education, the number of candidates with ties to Canada will increase in future draws.
The changes also place a greater emphasis on a provincial nomination as the only factor now worth 600 points, enough to effectively guarantee an ITA.
Three more Express Entry changes are planned for June 6, 2017. These include:
1) More points for French language
Candidates will score 15 additional points for a level 7 in listening, speaking, reading and writing in the Niveau de Competence Canadiens (NLC) combined with an English score of 4 or below in the Canadian Language Benchmark (Linguistique CLB).
Those points will rise to 30 if the French level 7 is combined with an English level 5 or above.
The extra points are in addition to the existing language points. Up to 136 points can be awarded for a candidate’s first official language, and 24 points for the second.
2) New points for having a sibling in Canada
Canada immigration statistics show having a sibling accelerates integration – a key measure of a successful immigration system.
Therefore, candidates with a sibling living in Canada will be awarded 15 extra points under Canada Express Entry.
The sibling must be age 18 or older and be a Canadian citizen or permanent resident. They must share a mother or father with the principal candidate or their spouse or common-law partner. The relationship can be blood, marriage, common-law or adoption.
The changes also include an end to mandatory job bank registration for all candidates without a job offer, although this does not impact points.
Express Entry In the Rest of 2017
The past six months have shown that IRCC officials intend to refine the Express Entry system.
As immigration priorities change, changes in the way points are scored under the program can be made.
Expect to see continued high numbers of ITAs issued in the course of 2017. The first draw of April already set a new record for the all-time lowest CRS score, and there is no sign the trend will not continue.
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