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<\/p>\nEither Canada\u2019s economy is back on track or in the midst of a \u2018temporary reprieve\u2019 \u2013 it depends who you ask.<\/p>\n
January saw the best figures since 2013, according to Statistics Canada, with a 0.6 per cent rise in gross domestic product after inflation adjustments.<\/p>\n
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That\u2019s up from 0.2 per cent in December and double the 0.3 per cent estimate of economists.<\/p>\n
\u201cSuddenly, the Canadian economy has managed to post a rip-roaring annualized growth rate of 5 per cent over the past three months,\u201d said Douglas Porter, Bank of Montreal chief economist.<\/p>\n
Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics, however, is not so excited.<\/p>\n
He wrote in a report: \u201cThe big question is whether this turnaround in Canada\u2019s economy is the real thing \u2013 a non-energy, export-led recovery coupled with a fading drag from energy \u2013 or just a temporary reprieve? We fear it might be the latter.\u201d<\/p>\n
The signs are good, however.<\/p>\n
January was the fourth consecutive month of gains after a 2015 defined by the falling price of oil.<\/p>\n
Almost every major industry is prospering led by continued strength in the important manufacturing segment, which rose by 1.9 per cent, making a flash-in-the-pan recovery less likely.<\/p>\n
With the economy running higher than estimates, pressure on government finances and interest rate policy could ease.<\/p>\n
The Bank of Canada forecast a 1 per cent annualized growth rate for the first quarter. Experts are putting the real-time growth nearer 3 per cent.<\/p>\n
The central bank\u2019s growth projections don\u2019t take into account the impact of the federal government\u2019s new budget, announced last month, which significantly increased spending.<\/p>\n
A stronger start to the year combined with increased fiscal stimulus is likely to lead to an upgrade in the growth forecast in its quarterly monetary policy report in mid-April. The figure currently stands at 1.4 per cent.<\/p>\n
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